General pleas for help - Tip: use a descriptive subject linehttps://help.stormcarib.com/list.php?20Sun, 19 Apr 2026 02:10:37 +0000 Phorum 5.2.11 https://help.stormcarib.com/read.php?20,66150,66150#msg-66150 https://help.stormcarib.com/read.php?20,66150,66150#msg-66150To follow up/reply to a message find the 'Reply' link below the posting.]]> gert GeneralThu, 07 Sep 2017 04:57:02 +0000 https://help.stormcarib.com/read.php?20,66149,66149#msg-66149 https://help.stormcarib.com/read.php?20,66149,66149#msg-66149
As can be expected I get a lot of questions like this. And yes, I can help you figuring out the chances! It's all on this website.

Visit the Climatology Section and follow the 'peak' link for your island to see how the islands fared in the last 150+ years.

An example...: Say I am going to vacation on St. Thomas U.S. Virgin Islands the week of September 8-14 (a lot of people will declare you crazy to go then, since it is the peak of hurricane season, but we'll see that it is not as bad as you might think).

1. Visit www.stormcarib.com/climatology ( link )
2. Scroll down to the Islands list. Find the listing for St.Thomas and follow the peak link. You can also click on the Eastern Caribbean Box on the Map, then click on Virgin Islands, which will give you an even more zoomed in map, and then finally find the peak link for St.Thomas below.
3. On that page two graph show all storms that passed within 60nm/69miles of the islands (so more storms are included then actually make landfall) of the island for each seven day period over either the last 150+ years (see below) or about the last 60 years. Shown are the number of just tropical storms, hurricanes, and the one which do cause major damage and we have to worry about most: the severe hurricanes (category 3-5 hurricanes).


category 3-5 hurricanes: purple; category 1-2: red; tropical storms: blue


4. Then find the time period that I am taking that trip to St.Thomas, the week of 9/8-9/14 and I see that over the last 150+ years there were a total number of 7 storms, 3 of which were hurricane, of which 2 were severe. That sounds quite a lot, but the chances of getting a severe hurricane that week while I am there is only 1 in 77 years. And that is what we consider the peak of the season! The week earlier has the most hurricanes (1 every 25 years) of which only one severe.

Below the graphs it will show the weeks with highest activity, or better, the weeks I would try to avoid vacationing on St.Thomas, because then I have that the highest chance of getting caught in the middle of a storm. For St.Thomas that is:
Since 1851:
Most storms: weeks of 8/18-8/24, 9/1-9/7 (8 since 1851 or 1 every 19.4 years)
Most hurricanes: week of 9/1-9/7 (6 since 1851 or 1 every 25.8 years)
Most severe hurricanes: weeks of 9/8-9/14, 9/15-9/21 (2 since 1851 or 1 every 77.5 years)

Since 1944:
Most storms: week of 9/15-9/21 (6 since 1944 or 1 every 10.7 years)
Most hurricanes: week of 9/15-9/21 (3 since 1944 or 1 every 21.3 years)
Most severe hurricanes: weeks of 9/1-9/7, 9/15-9/21, 11/17-11/23 (1 since 1944 or 1 every 64.0 years)

A cautionary note, as they say with stocks, past performance does not guarantee future returns... Also, note that these are not landfalling storms. Since winds decrease exponentionally from the eye of the storm, you might hardly notice a tropical storm go by, except for a rainy day or two...]]> gert GeneralMon, 02 Jun 2014 23:10:49 +0000